合情的推诿

资讯源头：FIGU/ ‘Billy’ Eduard Albert Meier
资讯主题：合情的推诿

资讯作者：J. W. Deardorff
资讯发布：2002年发表，2006年更新，2013年更新
资讯来源：｢Tjresearch. J. W. Deardorff｣
https://www.tjresearch.info/denial.htm
资讯链接：｢Futureofmankind. James Moore｣
https://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Plausible_Deniability
中版译者：Leon Fung
推送类型：中文域-[中译]
资讯备注：这是一篇非正式且未经授权的中译版资讯，内容基于英文源版译制，请注意我们的译文可能存在错误。

by J. W. Deardorff (2002, updated 2006, 2013)
由J. W. Deardorff发表 （2002年，2006年、2013年更新）

1. Maintenance of the UFO Coverup
（对）「UFO/不明飞行物」“coverup/遮掩”的维护：

That there is a UFO coverup can scarcely be denied (Fawcett & Greenwood, 1984; Good, 1988; Greer, 1999, pp. 301-312; Maccabee, 2000).
几乎不可否认，（我们的社会）存在一种对「UFO/不明飞行物」的‘coverup/遮掩’（Fawcett＆Greenwood，1984年；Good，1988年；Greer，1999年，第301-312页；Maccabee，2000年）。

It has been maintained through the voluntary wishes of about half the population, particularly persons in position of authority, as well as by the various governmental agencies that established the UFO ridicule factor.
这种‘coverup/遮掩’是通过大约一半的人口…特别是那些身处权势位置上的人的…自愿意愿，以及经由那些基于「UFO/不明飞行物」嘲讽因素建立起来的各种官方机构的参与…一同加以维持的。

This factor has been especially effective in causing the UFO topic to be taboo for scientists.
这种（嘲讽）因素在…促使「UFO/不明飞行物」议题成为（/沦为）科学家圈子里的（某种）禁忌…方面，特别有效。

However, the coverup has also been maintained by the UFO aliens themselves (Douglass, 2001).
不仅如此，就连「UFO/不明飞行物」-外星人本身，也（在某种程度上）保持着对其自身的‘coverup/遮掩’（Douglass，2001年）。

This should be obvious, considering the several hundred-thousand screened UFO reports since 1947, many multiply attested, in which the aliens could have made their appearances definite or could have stayed in one place long enough for the news media to gather and present the event to the world—that is, if the aliens had wished to allow this and show how easily they could, in self-defense, defeat the military forces that would converge upon the scene.
这应该是显而易见的，考虑到自1947年以来（发生的）数十万起经过筛选的「UFO/不明飞行物」报告，许多人都证实了这一点，在这些报告的描述中，外星人本可以显露他们的真容，又或是本可以呆在某一个地方一直等到新闻媒体聚集在现场并将相关事件播报给全世界，也就是说，如果外星人（真的）希望如此，那就表明他们在自卫方面，也就是在应对…有可能出现在现场的针对他们的…人类军事威胁方面，有着绝对十足的把握。

Instead, not only the multitudinous sightings and landing-trace evidence, but abductions, crop-circle formations and cattle mutilations have all been accomplished covertly, without leaving sufficiently firm evidence behind to satisfy most ufologists.
然而，事实却正相反，不仅在…有大量目击和（现场）着陆痕迹证据的…（目击事件中），还有那些绑架，‘crop-circle formations/麦田怪圈’和牲畜肢解（等事件），也都是秘密完成的，没有给大多数‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’留下（任何）能令他们满意的确凿证据。

Since such aliens did not move in and wipe us out or enslave us decades or millennia ago, the inference is that they, or the ones in charge of the coverup, maintain an ethic of not forcing society as a whole to believe what it is not yet prepared to believe.
由于这些外星人在几十年或几千年前，并没有占据我们的星球，同时也没有消灭或奴役我们，因此，有关于此的推论是：他们，或者那些负责实施‘coverup/遮掩’的外星人，（始终）保有一种…不强迫整个（人类）社会去相信/信仰（某种）人类尚未做好准备去相信/信仰之事物的…道德（理念/观念）。

They appear to have done their homework on us, and are leaving it up to us: experiencers, ufologists, the other half of the general public, and Hollywood, to gradually make their existence, presence and capabilities known.
他们似乎对我们（「Terran/地球人」）已经有十分充足的了解和认知，并将这一切交由我们自己去处理。（直至…）那些经历者，‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’，另一半（支持对「UFO/不明飞行物」实施‘coverup/遮掩’的）普通大众，还有「Hollywood/好莱坞」，逐渐认识到他们（即：外星人）的存在、显现及其能力。

The aliens’ role, then, is largely as catalysts and behind-the-scenes teachers, or, as Leo Sprinkle has expressed it, as messengers conditioning us towards cosmic consciousness (Sprinkle, 1999, pp. 168-169).
因此，外星人的角色主要是作为（某种）催化剂和‘behind-the-scenes teachers/幕后导师’，又或者，正如Leo Sprinkle曾表述的那样，作为信使指引我们趋向‘cosmic consciousness/环宇意识’（Sprinkle，1999年，第168-169页）。

Even from abductions—especially from abductions—we have learned much about the alien capabilities that we never could have just from UFO sightings alone.
即便是（通过）绑架，特别是（通过）绑架，我们也已经学到了非常多涉及外星人能力的资讯，而这些资讯仅凭对「UFO/不明飞行物」的目击…是无法获知的。

This is not to imply, however, that covertly educating us and preparing us is the only reason for the alien presence here now.
然而，这并不意味着…隐蔽地教导我们并让我们做好准备，是如今外星人出现在这里的唯一原因。

We cannot expect to fathom all the reasons the various alien groups may have for being here.
我们不能指望（自己能够）做到…（如实地）推测出各种外星人组织（寻求）来到这里（即：「Earth/地球」）的所有原因。

Where is science in all this?
而科学又在其中发挥了什么作用呢？

Its fringes have not been totally silent.
科学的边缘，并未对此完全沉默。

In the past quarter century the hypothesis has been proposed that aliens are currently in Earth’s vicinity and aware of us, but are mainly staying out of sight, by means of their advanced technology, because they have an embargo or quarantine against us, or because they are treating the solar system as if it were a wildlife refuge (e.g., see Ball, 1973; Kuiper & Morris, 1977; Harrison, 1981; Soter, 1985).
在过去的25年中，曾有人提出过这样的假设，即：外星人现阶段就在「Earth/地球」附近，并关注着我们，但主要是通过他们先进的科技…超视距观察我们，因为他们被禁止直接与我们发生接触，又或者，是因为（站在他们的角度/立场上）他们只是在治疗‘the solar system/太阳系’，就好像后者是一个野生动物保护区那样（例如：参见Ball，1973年；Kuiper＆Morris，1977年；Harrison，1981年；Soter，1985年）。

Suggested motivations for such strategies include the desire by ethical aliens to wait until we have become more civilized, to not provoke our societies into chaos by a sudden alien presence for which we are unprepared, and to ensure that unethical alien groups don’t take over.
采取这种策略的动机，包含这些有道德感的外星人…愿意等待至我们变得更加文明…的意愿，同时也是为了避免我们的社会因为突如其来的…我们尚未对此做好准备的…外星人（显现/显露）而陷入混乱，并确保那些缺乏道德感的外星组织不会得到对「Earth/地球」（or「Terran/地球人」）的统治权。

The UFO phenomenon then represents a purposeful “leak" in the alien embargo, such that when full disclosure does occur, the shock upon society will not be so calamitous (Deardorff, 1986; Deardorff et al., 2005; Sprinkle, 1999, pp. 183-184).
（正因为此…）「UFO/不明飞行物」现象，在外星人…禁止直接与「Terran/地球人」发生接触…的既定策略下，被视为一种有意为之的‘leak/泄密’，由此，当‘full disclosure/正面接触’确实发生时，就不会对社会公众造成严重的冲击（Deardorff，1986年；Deardorff等，2005年；Sprinkle，1999年，第183-184页）。

Alien use of deception is another means by which they can uphold the “leaky embargo" while making their presence known to witnesses who can distinguish between the real features of a genuine UFO sighting versus deceptive features.
使用（/制造）‘迷局’是外星人的另一种手段，通过这种手段，他们可以（继续）维持其‘leaky embargo/禁止泄密’的既定策略，同时又让目击者知悉他们的存在，而后者（即：目击者）（又刚好）是可以区分出…真正的「UFO/不明飞行物」所能目击到的真实特征与那些虚假特征之间…区别的人士。

As to speculated alien motivations for this, besides the ethical goal of not prematurely disrupting the UFO coverup, one is that the “good" aliens do not wish us to turn them into gods or initiate new religions.
至于推测外星人这样做的动机，除了不想过早地破坏「UFO/不明飞行物」‘coverup/遮掩’的道德（理念/观念）（这个）目标外，还有一个就是：这些‘good/善良’的外星人，并不希望我们把他们当成‘gods/神明’或是藉此发起新的宗教。

This might occur if everything they told their abductees and contactees appeared to be fully truthful and consistent, but is less likely if deception or disinformation is involved.
如果他们（即：外星人）告诉被绑架者和被接触者的一切，看起来都是完全真实且一致的话，那这种情况（即：人们把他们当成‘gods/神明’或是藉此发起新的宗教）就很有可能发生，但如果这些内容涉及欺骗或造谣的话…那这种情况就不太可能发生了。

Most people presumably don’t wish their god/God to lie to them.
（毕竟…）大多数人都不会希望他们的‘god/God/神/上帝’对他们说谎。

A possible alien goal closely related to this is to discourage us from accepting their every word or action as truthful or non-deceptive.
一个与此密切相关的、有可能的外星人（的）目标，是阻止我们（不自主地、不通过理性思考地…就）将他们所说的每一句话、所做的每一件事…都奉为真实的或非欺骗性的（‘truth/真理/真相’）。

This will tend to cause those who recognize the reality of the alien presence to continue to think logically and scientifically for themselves, and not lapse into an unhealthy dependence upon the aliens for information.
这将促使那些认知到外星人真实存在的人士，（能够）继续自主地基于逻辑（/理性）和科学去思考，而不是陷入一种不健康的…将外星人当作信息源泉的…精神状态-[注]。

利昂注释：

这里的意思是，陷入这种精神状态的人，将不再能够以独立自主的姿态去思考并从中探索获知新的认知，转而完全依赖于外星人的指点、指导，并将此作为其今后获取新认知的唯一途径和来源，至此，这样的人类将沦为一种思想的傀儡，不再具备自主进化的能力，而这，也是高度进化的充满道德感的外星种族所极力避免的，因为每一个人类种族及其文明，都需要完全地依靠其自身来实现物质（领域）和精神（层面）的进步，并最终达成其在进化道路上的有效前进。我们应牢记：只有自主的进化，才是有效的进化！

Instead, every alien communcation and apparent action will need to receive close scrutiny as to its veracity.
与此同时，每一次（与）外星人的沟通及其‘apparent action/显露（的）举动’，也都需要就其真实性…接受仔细地核查。

— —J. W. Deardorff

---

2. The Coverup as applied to the Meier case
适用于Meier案例的“Coverup/遮掩”：

It is consistent with the leaky-embargo hypothesis that the Meier case comprises a part of the leak in the embargo.
这与（上述）‘leaky-embargo/禁止泄密’的假设相一致，即：Meier案例（本身）在该‘embargo/禁令’中构成了‘leak/漏洞’的一部分。

However, its uniqueness indicates the man has been singled out for a special role.
不仅如此，整件事的独特性也表明：这个人（即：Billy Meier）是被挑选出来承担这一特殊角色的。

Bringing the Talmud of Jmmanuel (TJ) to the attention of interested persons could be a major part of this role.
引发兴趣人士对「Talmud of Jmmanuel」（「TJ」）的关注，会是这个角色（所需要承担）的一个主要部分。

What other document in the past two millennia could be more important for Western civilization than setting the history straight as to the origins of Christianity, and giving the true teachings of Jmmanuel, alias Jesus?
在过去的两千年中，对西方文明来说，还有什么其它的文件会比…彻底搞清「Christianity/基督教」的历史起源，并传达真正的「Jmmanuel/以马内利」（别号：‘Jesus/耶稣’？）的教义…更为重要呢？

The Pleiadians must have had to abide by the overall alien strategy of covertness even while setting Meier up with unique photo opportunities and contacts that would serve to attract attention to him, his experiences, his writings and the TJ.
「Plejarens」即便是在…给予Meier拍摄他们的「Beamship/光船」并与他们（发生）直接接触的唯一机会，从而帮助引发世人对其本人及其经历、作品和「TJ」的关注…的情况（/前提）下，也必须要遵守外星人总体的隐蔽策略。

They would have had to ensure that doing this would not prematurely rupture the UFO coverup.
他们必须确保…这样做不会过早地破坏「UFO/不明飞行物」的‘coverup/遮掩’（策略）。

This would be akin to abiding by a Codex Galactica as suggested by Newman & Sagan (1981), or the Prime Directive of “Star Trek."
这有些类似于遵守Newman&Sagan于1981年发起的「Codex Galactica/银河法典」，又或是（遵守）「Star Trek/星际迷航」中的‘Prime Directive/最高指导原则’-[注]。

利昂注释：

利昂恰是一位「Star Trek/星际迷航」的粉丝，所以熟知此处所指‘Prime Directive/最高指导原则’的意思，即：星际联邦的各成员（主体/个人），不得与尚未发展出「Warp/曲速」科技或是尚未掌握「Warp Drive/曲速引擎」的生物，发生任何意义上的直接接触，而只能在隐蔽自身的前提下对“「Warp/曲速」前的文明”采取只观察、不介入的行动。

With hindsight, we can understand how this balancing act was accomplished.
事后再看这些事，我们将能够理解这种‘balancing act/平衡行为’是如何实现的。

The aliens themselves would have to ensure that Meier would be an easy target for skeptics, realizing that debunkers tend to ignore supportive facts while focusing upon actions that may seem suspicious of fraud.
外星人本身必须确保Meier成为一个容易被怀疑论者攻击的目标，并使后者（即：那些怀疑论者）在…将注意力集中在那些看起来（存在）可疑性的欺诈行为…的时候，意识到那些揭发者往往忽视了（各种）支持性因素的事实。

However, Meier was allowed to take so many beamship photos and collect so much other evidence (not even presented in this website) of his Pleiadian contactors’ presence that one may wonder:
不仅如此，Meier被允许拍摄了这么多的「Beamship/光船」照片，并收集了这么多…他的Plejaren接触对象（确实）存在的…其它证据（有些甚至尚未在本网站呈现出来），以至于人们可能会想要知道：

Why didn’t this cause rapid acceptance of the reality of Meier’s experiences?
为什么这没有引发（公众）迅速接受Meier经历的真实性呢？

Why didn’t it cause a prompt collapse of the worldwide UFO coverup?
为什么整件事没有在全球范围内引发「UFO/不明飞行物」‘coverup/遮掩’（现状）的加速崩塌呢？

Some of the answers to this question do not directly involve the ETs:
（如下是）对（上述）问题的一些答案，但并不直接涉及「ET/外星人」：

Too many ufologists did not wish to treat a contactee case seriously; the Meier case was far too unique, and so ufologists would dismiss it like scientists do a datum point that lies too far afield; such ufologists did not wish to accept the possibility that aliens could actually work magical wonders well beyond our present level of understanding; they disliked the idea that aliens would pick for their prime contactee a man whose formal schooling did not extend nearly to the level of their own; they did not wish to receive ridicule from colleagues; they did not care for the spiritual message Meier received and disseminated, etc.
有太多的‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’并不愿意认真地对待被接触者的案例；Meier案例实在是太独特了，所以，‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’会像科学家们在太过遥远的地方设定一个基准点那样…忽略它；这些‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’并不愿意接受…外星人实际上可以制造出远远超出我们当前认知水平的奇幻奇观…的可能性；他们（即：‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’）不喜欢外星人（更倾向于）挑选那些…在接受正规教育方面…远不如他们的人，作为其主要（的）被接触者的做法；他们不希望受到来自同事的嘲笑；他们（根本就）不关心Meier接收到（的）和传播的‘spiritual message/精神信息’等。

Other answers involve the ETs.
其它涉及「ET/外星人」的答案：

Here are some of the actions that Meier’s ETs could and did take, apparenty to prevent the large amount of good evidence they allowed him to accumulate from rupturing the UFO coverup, and to enable skeptics to maintain Meier in a debunked state:
以下是Meier的「ET/外星（友）人」可能并确实采取的一些行动，显然，这是为了防止…他们允许Billy积累的大量高品质证据…破坏既定的「UFO/不明飞行物」‘coverup/遮掩’（策略），并使怀疑论者能够将Meier（案例）维持在一种‘被揭穿’（即：引发争议）的状态之下：

a. allow only Meier to come to contact meetings;
a. 仅允许Meier一人参与接触会面；

b. allow only Meier to take daytime photos and 8mm film of the Pleiadian UFOs;
b. 仅允许Meier一人在白天拍摄Plejaren「UFO/不明飞行物」的照片和8毫米（胶片）视频；

c. not allow Meier to photograph any of the Pleiadians themselves;
c. 不允许Meier拍摄他们（即：「Plejarens」）中的任何一个人的面容；

d. cause the tree at Fuchsbüel-Hofhalden in July 1975 to disappear only days after he took his photos of the beamship hovering there on all sides of the tree;
d. 1975年07月间，在Billy拍摄完一段…「Beamship/光船」围绕一颗（位于「Fuchsbüel-Hofhalden」的）树的四周盘旋的照片（/视频）…仅仅几天之后，就将那棵树（从现实中）移除；

e. shower Meier with excessive flattery at times during contact meetings, which he would object to but dutifully record in his Contact Reports; later, cynical readers would then assume that Meier had invented self-flattering prose;
e. 在接触会面期间，有时会对Meier表示出‘with excessive/过度的奉承’，虽然后者（即：Billy Meier）对此表达出反对…当仍会在他的「Contac Report/接触报告」中如实地记录下来；之后，那些愤世嫉俗的读者会认为是Meier自创了那些自我奉承的散文；

f. maneuver a beamship deceptively during one of the 8mm movie filmings (e.g., Maccabee, 1989a; Deardorff, 1989; Maccabee, 1989b), so as to make it appear rather like an oscillating UFO model;
f. 在一段8毫米（胶片）视频拍摄期间，迷惑性地操纵一艘「Beamship/光船」（转来转去）（例如：Maccabee，1989年-a；Deardorff，1989年；Maccabee，1989年-b），使其看起来更像是一个（被悬吊着）来回摇摆的「UFO/不明飞行物」模型；

g. provide Meier, temporarily, with a model beamship, which he photographed and reported to be a model (Meier, 1983, photo #63; Stevens, 1988a), then retrieve it;
g. 为Meier临时提供一个「Beamship/光船」模型，让Billy对其拍照，并将其报告为一个模型(Meier，1983年，063#案例照片-[注]；Stevens，1988年-a)，然后检索它；

利昂注释：

截至本次推文，我们仍未找到合适的063#案例照片（素材），待后续版本补图，敬请关注者知悉。

h. treat Meier to space trips and other events involving some of the aliens’ advanced technology, which would only invite incredulity on the part of most ufologists;
h. 接待Meier参与太空旅行以及其它一些涉及外星人先进科技的活动，而这，会更引发大多数‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’的质疑；

i. include items of disinformation at times for Meier to transmit in his Contact Reports, which items most ufologists or scientists would either chuckle over or shake their heads in disbelief, while assuming that Meier had invented them; this may include purposely false prophecies intermixed with astonishingly accurate prophecies;
i. 有时，故意在Meier的「Contact Reports/接触报告」中传输一些虚假的词汇信息，这其中可能包括（一些）有意为之的虚假预言，使之与令人惊讶的准确预言相混淆；而大多数‘ufologists/不明飞行物专家’或科学家都会…在假定这些信息是由Meier编造的情况下…在不信任中轻笑或是摇头；

j. tell Meier at first that his contactors were from the Pleiades, then later that they were from a space-time shifted form of the Pleiades, and that they should be called Plejarens, not Pleiadians— this could make it seem like Meier learned in the interim that the Pleiades were not an old enough star cluster to have evolved conditions suitable for advanced life to develop;
j. 先告诉Meier他的接触对象来自Plejaren星团，然后又告诉Meier他们是来自一个时空偏移的Plejaren星团，并且应该将他们称为「Plejarens」，而不是‘Pleiadians’，这一切看起来，像是Meier（早）在过渡时期就（已经）知道了（我们所处时空维度的Pleiades星团）并不是一个足够成熟的恒星团，那里尚不具备适合高等生命形式（即：人类生命形式）发展/进化的条件；

k. provide Meier (in 1990) with minor corrections to insert in future editions of the Talmud of Jmmanuel (Deardorff, 2001) — this could reinforce skeptics’ views that Meier had invented the entire TJ. With plausible deniability in mind, Meier’s contactors appear to have taken other actions regarding the TJ also: ensuring that Meier would survive to distribute the TJ translation while taking no such action to ensure survival of the translator (Rashid) and the Aramaic scrolls/rolls themselves, after the early 1970s;
k. （在1990年）为Meier提供一些微小的修正（说明），并将其植入「Talmud of Jmmanuel」的后续版本（Deardorff，2001年） – 这会增强怀疑论者…认为是Meier编造了整部「TJ」…的观点。鉴于这种‘plausible deniability/合情的推诿’，Meier的接触对象（即：「Plejarens」）似乎还对「TJ」采取了其它行动，即：确保Meier会幸存下来完成对「TJ」的翻译，除此之外，在上世纪七十年代初期以后，在一场毁灭（「TJ」之前的）译者（Rashid）和那‘Aramaic scrolls/rolls/亚拉姆语卷轴’-[注] 的事故中，保持沉默；

利昂注释：

这里所指的卷轴是「Jmmanuel/以马内利」真正的卷轴，由其遭受宗教污蔑长达几千年的忠实信徒「Judas Iscariot/犹大.依卡利略」使用「Aramaic/亚拉姆语」书写下来。事实上，「Judas Iscariot/犹大.依卡利略」是「Jmmanuel/以马内利」最喜爱的门徒，当时也只有他具备读写技能，由此，「Jmmanuel/以马内利」便将这个重任，也就是将他的传记「Talmud Jmmanuel」书写下来的重任，交给了「Judas Iscariot/犹大.依卡利略」。

…（续K节）

causing a rockslide down over the hillside containing the tomb site in which the TJ had been unearthed (this they could easily do without raising suspicions, as skeptics could so easily say ‘How convenient!’); occasionally including disinformation within Contact Reports discussing subject matter about the writing of the TJ or of the Christian Gospels — e.g., telling Meier that the Gospel of Matthew was authored by the disciple Matthew in contradiction to the information in the TJ that the latter was not available to be the source of any gospel until well into the 2nd century.
在…其中包含墓址（从中已发掘出「TJ」的源版卷轴）的…山坡上制造一场岩石滑塌（他们可以很容易做到且不会引发怀疑，就如同怀疑论者说‘How convenient!/（这）多方便啊！’那般）；偶尔在「Contact Reports/接触报告」…有关「TJ」或「Christian Gospels/基督教福音书」写作…的讨论主题中，植入一些虚假的信息——例如：告诉Meier「Gospel of Matthew/马太福音」是由信徒Matthew所著，而这，与「TJ」中关于后者直到公元二世纪才成为‘gospel/福音’来源的信息（描述）自相矛盾。

l. providing Meier with the broken-off top of the tree that showed up prominently in a few photographs Meier took while he was on Quetzal’s “wedding-cake" craft (WCUFO) taking pictures of a second similar craft just above the forest canopy (photo #838, 3 April 1981, full story here);
l. 向Meier提供被折断的树冠，该树冠显著地出现在Meier拍摄的一些照片中，当时他（即：Billy）在Quetzal驾驶的一艘‘wedding-cake/婚礼蛋糕’（型）飞行器（「WCUFO」）上，对另一艘悬浮在森林林冠上方的同类飞行器（即：另一艘直径为3.5米的「WCUFO」）进行拍照（838#案例照片，1981年04月03日，完整的故事如下）；

…（续L节）

shortly afterwards Quetzal rammed his craft into the upper part of the tree, accidentally, supposedly, causing its top to break off, while a second such ramming broke the rest of the tree off lower down. Meier considered this tree top as good evidence that he had been in the WCUFO at treetop level so he soon photographed it next to his little tractor with which he hauled it and the broken-off lower portion out of the forest (photo #862), while skeptics might assume he had later placed this identifiable tree top upright on the ground and taken pictures of a model WCUFO somehow suspended behind it.
就在Quetzal操控「Beamship/光船」（即：「WCUFO」）意外地撞到那棵树的树冠之后不久，据称，（当时）就导致这棵树的顶端断裂下来，而第二次这样的（意外）撞击，则在稍低的位置上折断了树冠的其余部分。Meier认为这截折断的树冠，正好是他曾呆在…悬浮在树冠高度的…一艘「WCUFO」中的有利证据，于是他很快就把这截树冠靠在他的小拖拉机上拍了照，与此同时，他还用这台拖拉机将树冠折断的下半截从森林里拖了出来（862#案例照片）， 而怀疑论者可能认为，他（即：Billy Meier）是随后将这截可识别的树冠竖直立在地面上，然后再以某种方式在该树冠的后方悬吊一个「WCUFO」模型…进行拍照的。

…（续L节）

Fortunately, Meier also took a couple photos of the rest of the downed tree (photo #853), which show it had been broken off, not sawed or chopped.
幸运的是，Meier还拍摄了其它几张树冠折断的下半截的照片（853#案例照片），这张照片显示树冠是被折断的，而不是被锯断或是砍断的。

All of the above actions, and more, may, when examined only superficially, seem to discredit Meier, but they were well under the control of the Pleiadians/Plejarens to have implemented.
所有上述行为，以及更多的、可能的（行为），如果浅显地去看，似乎都会让Meier名誉扫地，但这一切都被「Plejarens」很好地控制并加以实施了。

Most of them are self-explanatory.
其中的大多数（行为）都是不言而喻的。

In (f), the particular maneuver in the Maccabee reference mostly involved the UFO circling around the top of a tree in a simple harmonic motion, as in a pendulum movement.
在（f）中，Maccabee参考提及的‘particular maneuver/特殊机动’，主要涉及「UFO/不明飞行物」以一种简单的谐波运动（就如同以一种钟摆运动那样）围绕一棵树的树冠盘旋。

The skeptic’s interpretation then was of a model swinging around a model tree at the end of a string whose length could be deduced from the period of the pendular movements.
怀疑论者对此的解释是：一个模型悬吊在一根线的末端…围绕着一颗模型树在摆荡，而这根线的长度是可以通过（模型）的钟摆运动周期推算出来的。

Thus this maneuver fit in well with the alien strategy outlined.
因此，这种机动（演示）很好地迎合了（上述所提）外星人的总体（隐蔽）策略。

However, pendular UFO motions have been noted in other witnessed UFO instances (Olsen, 1989; Pine, 1993; Maccabee, 1993).
不仅如此，（这种）「UFO/不明飞行物」的钟摆运动也已经在其它「UFO/不明飞行物」目击事件中被注意到(Olsen，1989年；Pine，1993年；Maccabee，1993年)。

Thus the UFO craft are quite capable of such maneuvers, and when this incident is examined in depth, one finds far too many very serious problems with the hoax hypothesis to advocate it.
因此，「UFO/不明飞行物」飞行器是很擅长做这种机动的，与此同时，当对这一事件进行深入探究时，人们会发现有太多…涉及骗局假设的…非常严重的问题，从而无法再为其（即：这些骗局假设）辩解。

Item (i) above is especially important.
上述的（i）项尤其重要。

By including some “silly science," contradictions, and/or unacceptable thoughts into what they tell a contactee, the aliens can ensure that most scientists who learn of it will assume the contactee invented it.
通过将一些‘silly science/愚蠢科学’、矛盾（点）和/或不可接受的想法植入…他们告诉被接触者的…内容之中，这些外星人就可以确保大多数了解这些事的科学家们都会认为…这一切都是被接触者（自己）编造的。

Although Meier’s Contact Reports are fascinating reading, this precaution should be kept in mind.
尽管Meier的「Contact Reports/接触报告」读起来很吸引人，但这种预防措施仍应该被牢记。

In many instances, however, even a scientist may not be able to discern for sure just what in these reports could be disinformation as opposed to truth.
不仅如此，在许多情况下，即便是一名科学家也不能做到确切识别出…这些报告（究竟）有哪些内容…是与‘truth/真理/真相’相左的虚假信息。

These reports are very realistic in their word-for-word recordings of what Meier said in response to what his contactor(s) told him, and in contact-related events they describe what different witnesses have corroborated.
这些报告的字里行间非常现实（/纪实），它们逐字逐句地记录了Meier对…Plejaren接触对象告知他的一切…做出回应时所说的话，与此同时，在与接触相关的事件中，它们（即：「Contact Report/接触报告」）也（从另一个角度）描述了不同目击者所证实的那些事实（/经历）。

— —J. W. Deardorff

---

3. Alien implementation of plausible deniability in general
外星人实施“plausible deniability/合情推诿”的总述：

Thus it is hypothesized that this strategy of presenting truth plus semi-plausible deniability is implemented by the aliens while they carry out their sightings to us and their contacts.
至此，（我们可以）假设这种（[半]）显露‘truth/真理/真相’外加‘semi-plausible deniability/[半]合情推诿’的策略，是外星人…在被目击以及与我们发生接触时…所实施的（行动策略）。

Within ufology in general, aliens sometimes present their craft at nearly the same time, and in the same general location where persons are situated who could witness it, as the occurrence of a scientifically explainable event, such as a bright meteor or a satellite reentry (Gordon, 1985, p. 8).
在‘ufology/飞碟学’领域中，外星人有时会在几乎相同的时间以及在目击者能够目击到该飞行器的相同位置上，显露他们的飞行器，并作为一种可以在科学上得到解释的目击事件摆在世人面前，比如：那就是一颗明亮的流星或是一颗返地卫星（ Gordon，1985年，第8页）。

This seems to have happened much too often to be explained by coincidence.
（但如果）这种解释出现的太过经常，也就不好再用‘巧合’一词…对后续的同类事件加以解释了。

If in any particular instance the aliens should decide that they provided too much UFO evidence to some witness, they can always provide some further, seemingly bizarre, incident for that witness to experience that will tend to discredit him or her.
如果在任何特定情况下，外星人都决定向某些目击者提供非常多的「UFO/不明飞行物」证据，那他们就总能制造更多的、看似离奇的（目击）事件，而目击者在经历过这些事件之后，往往会招致世人对他们的嘲讽。

Alternatively, they can cause evidence to vanish: (e.g., Stevens, 1982, p. 426; Gordon, 1984; Stevens, 1988b, pp. 139-140; Kinder, 1987, 249-253; Walters & Maccabee, 1997, pp. 34-35), including “angel hair," and similarly for fetuses that vanish from pregnant abductees’ wombs.
再或者，他们可以让证据突然消失：(例如：Stevens，1982年，第426页；Gordon，1984年；Stevens，1988年-b，第139-140页；Kinder，1987年，第249-253页；Walters＆Maccabee，1997年，第34-35页），这包括‘angel hair/天使的头发’-[注]，以及与之相类似的让被绑架怀孕母体子宫内的胎儿消失。

利昂注释：

这里指的是，Billy曾在039#接触中，在征得Semjase同意后，剪取了一些Semjase的头发样本，有关此事的更多细节，参见如下对话摘录，以及Benjamin Stevens在（2010年09月26日，周日）译制（德￫英）该篇「Contact Report/接触报告」时所给出的注释：

http://www.futureofmankind.co.uk/Billy_Meier/Contact_Report_039

• 「Contact Report/接触报告」-039#：
• Wednesday, 3 December, 1975, 1:37 AM
• 1975年12月03日，周三，01:37

Billy
Anyway, we better talk about something else.
但是现在，我们还是谈点儿别的事情吧。

You just said something about the hair of the human beings in Mount Shasta, which reminds me of something very special.
你刚才有提到（居住在）「Mount Shasta」（地名）（的）人类的头发，这让我想起了一些很特别的事。

Here – there, that is a pair of scissors.
看，在那儿，那是一把剪刀。

Cute, eh?
很可爱，对不？

Semjase
316. That is, nevertheless, a working device.
316. 是很可爱，但这是一种工具。

Billy
Of course, it can also be called that, but do you know what such a thing is good for?
当然，也可以这样称呼它，但你知道这样的一个东西是用来做什么的吗？

Semjase
317. It is designed to cut materials.
317. 是用来裁剪物料的。

Billy
Exactly, with this, one can even cut or trim away hair.
完全正确，有了这个，人们甚至可以剪掉或是修剪头发。

Semjase
318. Sure, but what do you want with it?
318. 当然，但你想用它做什么呢？

Billy
Nothing less than to cut off a decent tuft of your hair, which we want to put in our display case as a memento of you, so to speak.
再没有什么比剪掉一些你的头发更好的了，我们想将它作为一种你的纪念品存放在我们的展示柜中，可以这么说。

You know, as something personal from you.
你知道，一些来自你个人的东西。

We don’t want to operate a cult with it.
（但）我们不会用它来塑造一种狂热崇拜。

Here, I still have a piece of string to bind a decent bundle.
看，我还带了一根可以把它们捆绑的很好的绳子。

You surely won’t have anything against it, right?
你肯定不会反对的，对么？

Semjase
319. – You really have ideas sometimes, but if you think that it could be a joy for you…
319. 你有时真的很有想法，但如果你想这么做的话…

Billy
Of course, then I may do so, yes?
当然了，我可以这么做，是吗？

– So, please tie this bundle together for me.
那，请帮我把这一束头发捆绑在一起吧。

– Just tighten it a little harder; the thread doesn’t tear so quickly.
稍微系紧一点儿，这样绳子就不会很快挣开了。

– Good.
好了。

So, let’s now go ahead – aha, nice!
那么，我们继续后边的话题吧——啊哈，真好！

This is a nice memento; everyone will be happy about it.*
这是一个很好的纪念品，每一个人都会为此高兴的。

Translator’s Note:
译者的注释：

According to Annotation #3 on page 99 of Message from the Pleiades Volume 2, the investigation team, headed by Wendelle Stevens, was given a small packet of hairs from the tuft that was cut from the head of Semjase, and the investigators took it to the forensic laboratory in the Department of Archaeology at the University of Arizona, in Tucson, for analysis.
根据「Message from the Pleiades/来自Plejaren的讯息」，第2卷，第99页上的3#注释，由「Wendelle Stevens」领导的调查团队，从Billy那里得到了从Semjase头上剪下来的一簇头发中的一小束，调查人员将它们带到「Tucson/图森市」的「University of Arizona/亚利桑那州立大学」-“Department of Archaeology/考古系”的法医（学）实验室进行分析。

They inquired into its age and whether it was from a human or non-human being or from a male or female.
他们想要知道这束头发的主体的年龄，以及该主体是来自人类还是非人类，是来自男/雄性还是女/雌性。

They also inquired into systemic deficiencies, any diseases that were overcome, condition of health, treatment, etc.
他们还询问了该主体是否存在系统性的（身体）缺陷、过往病史、健康状况和治疗等。

The investigators were disappointed when they were told that most of what they asked for had to be determined from the root bulb of the hair and not simply a clipping.
但当调查人员被告知，他们想知道的大部分信息，都必须基于发根而不仅仅是发茎才能加以确认时，他们感到很失望。

All that was confirmed was that it was from a white woman in prime age and health.
实验室所能给出的确认，仅仅是这些头发来自一位身体健康的年轻白人女性。

Benjamin Stevens
Benjamin Stevens

Yet again they can send around a few Men in Black (MIB) to intimidate the witness into not speaking out further (Clark, 1998), or to cause him/her to become discredited after reporting some bizarre aspect of the MIBs or their dress or behavior.
除此之外，他们还可以派遣几名「Men in Black/黑衣人」（「MIB」）去恐吓见证者/目击者，迫使后者不敢说出更多的细节（Clark，1998年），或是在报告「MIB」的一些诡异方面或其穿着或行为之后，使后者（即：见证者/目击者）陷入公众的质疑。

In the Meier case, the Pleiadians/Plejarens must then have been especially careful to frequently provide deceptive evidence or remove other evidence in order to maintain the UFO coverup in the face of all the positive evidence they allowed him to accumulate.
为此，在Meier案例中，「Plejarens」必须特别小心地频繁提供（一些）‘欺骗性’的证据或是（及时）清除其它的证据，以便在面对…他们允许他（即：Billy Meier）积累的…所有真实证据时，仍能维持其既定的「UFO/不明飞行物」‘coverup/遮掩’（策略）。

Item (i) is also important in serving to prevent a UFO case from turning into some new religion, for ETs ethical enough to refrain from doing so.
（上述）项目（i），在阻止「UFO/不明飞行物」案例被（人为地）转变成某个新宗教方面，同样发挥着重要的作用，因为「ET/外星人」既有的道德理念（/观念）会让他们避免这种事的发生。

Who would want to turn the Pleiadians into gods and goddesses upon noticing that they have dished out disinformation along with truths?
在注意（/意识）到他们（即：「Plejarens」）在给出‘truths/真理/真相’的同时，还抛出了虚假信息之后，谁还会想要将「Plejarens」视作‘gods/神明’和‘goddesses/女神’呢？

Or, how could Meier ever be treated as a spiritual teacher, or head of a new religion, if everything he relayed from the Pleiadians/Plejarens has to be considered on its own merits as to whether it is “wheat" or “chaff"?
又或者，如果Meier转述自「Plejarens」的所有内容，都必须（首先）基于这些信息本身的优缺点，考虑哪些内容是‘小麦’哪些内容是‘糠’的话-[注]，那Meier又如何能被视为一名‘spiritual teacher/精神导师’，又或是一位‘new religion/新宗教’的领路人呢？

利昂注释：

这里要表达的意思是，“truth/真理/真相”是朴实无华的，不应基于人类自身的主观利弊判断/评判，而去决定什么样的“truth/真理/真相”是有价值的，什么样的“truth/真理/真相”是无用的，“truth/真理/真相”就是“truth/真理/真相”，在任何情况下，都不会跟随人类主观意识的认知而发生改变，而作为“truth/真理/真相”的传播者，必须始终恪守在学习和传播“truth/真理/真相”过程中的中性立场，唯有此，才能避免…以人类固有的历史局限性…破坏“truth/真理/真相”的正确呈现。

This strategy of semi-plausible deniability seems to be fail-safe, in that even disclosing it can in no way cause it to fail.
这种‘semi-plausible deniability/[半]合情推诿’的策略，似乎是最能保证底线安全的，在这种策略下，即便暴露某些事也不会带来（/招致）失败。

Those who are intent to focus on the aliens’ deceptive actions, or the naturally occurring uncertainties in a case, while dismissing the supportive evidence, are not likely to accept the reality of an alien strategy of semi-plausible deniability.
而那些执意将注意力集中在外星人欺骗行为，或是在案例中自然发生的（各种）不确定性，同时（选择性地）忽视哪些支持性证据的人，则不太可能接受外星人这种‘semi-plausible deniability/[半]合情推诿’策略的实情。

They can just assume that those who do recognize the positive, supportive evidence are under a self-reinforcing delusion.
这些人只能假设：那些（对他们来说是所谓的）认知到正面的、支持性证据的人士，（只）是处在他/她们自我强化的错觉之下。

The qualifier “semi-" is used here to prefix “plausible deniability," because the UFO aliens present evidence that supports the reality of their presence and sightings as well as presenting evidence or taking actions that can raise suspicions that the witnesses were mistaken or were hoaxers.
这里使用限定词‘semi/[半]’来前缀‘plausible deniability/合情的推诿’，是因为「UFO/不明飞行物」外星人所提供的证据，不仅支持了他们存在并被目击到的真实性，也提供或采取了能够引发…认为见证者/目击者是被误导/误解的又或者见证者/目击者本身就是欺诈者的…质疑的（相关）证据或行动。

The negative skeptics implausibly ignore the former while concentrating on the latter.
消极的怀疑论者往往会令人难以置信地（选择性）忽视前者（即：事件的真实性），而将他们的注意力都集中在后者（即：事件的欺骗性）。

This behavior seems to accompany such skeptics’ refusal to accept the possibility or likelihood that not only are the UFO aliens present and greatly advanced over us technologically and scientifically, but they are also more intelligent than we, and can stay two jumps ahead of our best scientists.
这种行为似乎伴随着这些怀疑论者拒绝接受（如下）这种可能性的存在，即：「UFO/不明飞行物」外星人不仅存在，并在科技和科学上远远超越我们，而且他们也比我们更加聪明，即便是我们最优秀的科学家也无法与之比拟。

This topic, of the contacting UFO aliens (or ETI) actually being intelligent and implementing a strategy of semi-plausible deniability in dealing with us, such that people are not forced into believing what they don’t want to believe, has been almost entirely neglected within ufology.
这个话题，即：与我们接触的「UFO/不明飞行物」外星人（或ETI）实际上非常聪明，并在与我们打交道的过程中执行了一种‘semi-plausible deniability/[半]合情推诿’的策略，如此一来，人们就不会被强迫相信那些他们不愿去相信的东西…的这个话题，在‘ufology/飞碟学’（圈子里）几乎被完全忽视了。

If or when this strategy were to become widely known and accepted, the time would have arrived at which the aliens should no longer need to maintain their role in the UFO coverup.
如果…或者当…这个策略变得广为人知并被广泛接受之时，外星人也就不再需要继续维持其…在既定的「UFO/不明飞行物」‘coverup/遮掩’（策略）中…所扮演的角色了。

Their strategy will then have succeeded.
到那时，他们之前的策略（即：现有的既定策略）也将被证明是成功的。

Some advantages of this semi-plausible-deniability hypothesis are that it not only accounts for the UFO coverup by the aliens themselves, and for UFO aliens not having wiped us out any time in our past, but accounts for both the firm evidence favoring particular UFO cases and the elements that skeptics find suspicious.
这种‘semi-plausible-deniability/[半]合情推诿’假设的一些优点仅在于：它不仅说明/阐释了外星人自主实施「UFO/不明飞行物」‘coverup/遮掩’（的实情），同时也说明/阐释了「UFO/不明飞行物」外星人在人类以往的历史中从未将我们清除，还说明/阐释了支持特定「UFO/不明飞行物」案例的确凿证据…以及怀疑论者所发现的（各种）可疑因素。

— —J. W. Deardorff

---

参考资讯：

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• Ball, J. A.（1973年）
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资讯注释：

「JBIS」，即：「Journal of the British Interplanetary Society」。

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• Harrison, E. R.（1981年）
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• 「New York/纽约」: 「Cambridge University Press/剑桥大学出版社」

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• 「New York/纽约」: 「Atlantic Monthly Press/大西洋月刊」

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• Kuiper, T.B.H.和Morris, M.
• “「Searching for extraterrestrial civilizations/寻找外星文明」”
• 「Science/科学杂志」，第196期，第616-621页。

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• Maccabee, B.（1989年-a）
• 「Pendulum from the Pleiades/来自Plejaren光船的钟摆」
• 「International UFO Reporter/国际不明飞行物报告」-14案，第1期（01月/02月），第11-12，22页。

• Maccabee, B. (1989b). Pleiades Pendulum (Response). International UFO Reporter 14, No. 5, pp. 21-24. In this note, Maccabee does remark that at one point, the top of the tree (but only the top) momentarily swooped over in the direction of the UFO’s travel as it passed very closely above it.
• Maccabee, B.（1989年-b）
• 「Pleiades Pendulum (Response)/Plejaren光船的钟摆（回应）」
• 「International UFO Reporter/国际不明飞行物报告」-14案，第5期（09月/10月），第21-24页。
• 在这篇文章中，Maccabee确有标注，在某一点上，树冠（仅指树梢的部分）沿着「
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• Maccabee, B.（1993年）
• 「Gulf Breeze lights still unexplained/仍无法解释的格夫布里兹之光」
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• Maccabee, B.（2000年）
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• Meier, E.（ca 1983年）
• 「Verzeichnis: Authentischer Farb-Photos/目录：正版彩色照片」
• 「Switzerland/瑞士」-「Hinterschmidrüti」：E. Meier（即：Eduard Billy）

• Newman, W. and Sagan, C. (1981). Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion. Icarus 46, p. 296. In this paper the authors acknowledge the statement to have derived from Arthur C. Clarke.
• Newman, W.和Sagan, C.（1981年）
• 「Galactic civilizations: Population dynamics and interstellar diffusion/银河文明：人口动态和星际流转」
• 「Lcarus」（出版社），第46期，第296页。
• 在该篇文章中，两位作者承认该声明来源于Arthur C. Clarke。

• Olsen, T. M. 1989. Pleiades pendulum (Letter). International UFO Reporter 14, No. 5 (Sept./Oct.), p. 24.
• Olsen, T. M. （1989年）
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• Pine, C. (1993). In “Current Cases," MUFON UFO Journal No. 305 (Sept.), p. 20.
• Pine, C.（1993年）
• 「在“Current Cases/当前案例”」
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• Soter, S. (1985). “The cosmic quarantine hypothesis." Planetary Report 5, pp. 20-21 (a publication of the Planetary Society).
• Soter, S.（1985年）
• “「The cosmic quarantine hypothesis/宇宙隔离假说」”
• 「Planetary Report/行星报告」-5，第20-21页（「Planetary Society/行星学会」出版物）。

• Sprinkle, R. Leo, (1999). Soul Samples: Personal Explorations in Reincarnation and UFO Experiences. Columbus, NC: Granite Publishing.
• Sprinkle, R. Leo（1999年）
• 「Soul Samples: Personal Explorations in Reincarnation and UFO Experiences/灵魂样本：在转世和不明飞行物经历中的个人探索」
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• Stevens, W. C.（1982年）
• 「UFO Contact from the Pleiades: A Preliminary Investigation Report/来自Plejaren的不明飞行物接触：初步调查报告」
• 「VA/弗吉尼亚州」-「Tucson/图森市」：UFO照片档案馆（绝版）

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• Stevens, W. C.（1988年-a）
• 02月10日的个人通讯。

• Stevens, W. C. (1988b). Message from the Pleiades, vol. 1. Tucson, VA: UFO Photo Archives (out of print).
• Stevens, W. C.（1988年-b）
• 「Message from the Pleiades/来自Plejaren的讯息」（第一卷）
• 「 VA/弗吉尼亚州」-「Tucson/图森市」：UFO照片档案馆（绝版）

• Walters, E. and Maccabee, B. 1997. UFOs Are Real: Here’s the Proof. New York: Avon Books.
• Walters, E.和Maccabee, B.（1997年）
• 「UFOs Are Real: Here’s the Proof/不明飞行物是真实的：这是证据」
• 「New York/纽约」：Avon Books（出版社）

– Saalome Promise in 2023 –